have been trading at compelling valuations
By Thomas Ognar, CFA; Joseph Eberhardy, CFA, CPA; and Bruce Olson, CFA—
Premier Large Company Growth Fund
In a market environment characterized by low interest rates and economic uncertainty, many investors have turned to the perceived safety of income-producing investments with less regard for longer-term growth opportunities. As investor demand for yield has increased, we believe that many investors have paid a higher premium for stocks that offer relatively high dividend yields but provide low earnings growth potential. Consequently, we believe that high-growth companies, those with long-term estimated earnings per share (EPS)1 growth of greater than 15%, are trading at compelling valuations, particularly when compared with higher-dividend-yielding stocks.
As illustrated in Chart 1, investor demand for stability and income has lifted the valuations of higher-dividend-yielding stocks close to parity with the broad equity market (as measured by the S&P 500 Index2). By comparison, stocks with strong and sustainable growth prospects are currently trading on a forward price/earnings (P/E)3 basis only moderately higher than their 10-year lows.
Chart 2 illustrates the valuation relationship between higher-dividend-yielding stocks and high-growth stocks within the S&P 500 Index since 2002. Over the past several months, higher-dividend-yielding stocks have been trading at elevated levels not often observed over the past 10 years when compared with valuations of higher-growth stocks.
Since early 2011, investors seem to have been more aggressive at times in their pursuit of higher-dividend-yielding opportunities. This trend was particularly evident as longer-term U.S. Treasury yields declined, partly due to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing measures. From early February 2011 through the end of December 2012, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield significantly declined from approximately 3.7% to 1.8%. This time period corresponds to when valuations for higher-dividend-yielding stocks were rising relative to both high-growth stocks and the broad equity market.
In our view, this valuation dichotomy offers a unique proposition for investors seeking companies with solid long-term growth prospects. We have identified several companies that we believe have strong, secular tailwinds that may support sustainable organic growth under a variety of economic conditions. However, despite solid growth prospects, many of these secular growth companies are trading at P/Es that are below their long-term growth rates. This dynamic, in our opinion, presents a favorable valuation-to-growth profile.
In many respects, the current low corporate earnings growth environment should lead to premium valuations for robust and sustainable growth opportunities. But going forward, we believe that it will be increasingly important to determine which companies are best capable of rewarding shareholders with sustainable revenue and earnings growth rather than simply paying out dividends.
We believe that investors should consider multiple factors when making equity investment decisions rather than just a singular view of risk-to-reward in the context of dividend yield. An analysis of earnings estimates and valuations reveals a unique opportunity to build a portfolio of companies with robust and sustainable growth potential that is being underappreciated by other investors. Our analysis identifies strong growth companies that are effectively reinvesting cash flow in an effort to expand their businesses and successfully grow their revenues and earnings. We believe that companies consistently executing in this regard are likely to be rewarded with higher share prices over the long term through a combination of both solid earnings growth and potentially higher valuations.